Contrarian Investment Strategies: the Next GenerationDavid Dreman's name is synonymous with the term "contrarian investing," and his contrarian strategies have been proven winners year after year. His techniques have spawned countless imitators, most of whom pay lip service to the buzzword "contrarian," but few can match his performance. His Kemper-Dreman High Return Fund has been the leader since its inception in 1988 -- the number one equity-income fund among all 208 ranked by Lipper Analytical Services, Inc. Dreman is also one of a handful of money managers whose clients have beaten the runaway market over the past five, ten, and fifteen years. Now, as the longest bull market in the history of the stock market winds down, there is increasing volatility and a great deal of uncertainty. This is the climate that tests the mettle of the pros, the worries of the average investor, and the success of David Dreman's brilliant new strategies for the next millennium. Contrarian Investment Strategies: The Next Generation shows investors how to outperform professional money managers and profit from potential Wall Street panics -- all in Dreman's trademark style, which The New York Times calls "witty and clear as a silver bell." Dreman reveals a proven, systematic, and safe way to beat the market by buying stocks of good companies when they are currently out of favor. At the heart of his book is a fundamental psychological insight: investors overreact. Dreman demonstrates how investors consistently overvalue the so-called "best" stocks and undervalue the so-called "worst" stocks, and how earnings and other surprises affect the best and worst stocks in opposite ways. Since surprises are a way of life in the market, Dreman shows you how to profit from these surprises with his ingenious new techniques, most of which have been developed in the nineties. You'll learn:
Based on cutting-edge research and irrefutable statistics, David Dreman's revolutionary techniques will benefit professionals and laymen alike. |
Contents
CONTENTS | 15 |
WHY CURRENT METHODS DONT WORK | 25 |
From Technical Analysis to Astrology | 40 |
Destroying the Faith | 47 |
PART II | 56 |
THE EXPERT WAY TO LOSE YOUR SAVINGS | 65 |
Would You Play a 1 in 50 Billion Shot? | 89 |
Career Pressures and Forecasts | 104 |
Walking Away from the Chips | 190 |
Knowing Your Market Odds | 214 |
Profiting from Investor Overreaction | 238 |
PART IV | 259 |
An Investment for All Seasons | 279 |
What Is Risk? | 297 |
Small Stocks Nasdaq and Other | 316 |
PART V | 345 |
The Forecasters Plague | 111 |
Nasty Surprises | 117 |
The Effect of Positive Surprises | 124 |
Reinforcing Events | 132 |
PART III | 137 |
Boosting Portfolio Profits | 160 |
PricetoDividend | 167 |
To the Trenches | 174 |
Time for a Miss | 181 |
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Common terms and phrases
academic adjusted Amos Tversky analysts annually assumptions average Banz Baruch Fischhoff beat the market behavior beta bonds and T-bills chapter common stock companies Compustat Contrarian Investment contrarian stocks contrarian strategies crash crisis Daniel Kahneman David Dreman dividend dollars earnings surprise economic efficient market hypothesis errors estimates Eugene Fama experts Fama Figure Forbes forecasts growth Heuristics higher Ibid indicates industry Investment Strategy investors IPOs Journal of Finance Kahneman large numbers look low P/E lowest major market value million modern portfolio theory money managers months mutual funds Nasdaq negative surprises odds outperform the market overreaction P/BV P/E group P/E ratio paradigm Paul Slovic performance portfolio positive surprises predictable price-to-book value price-to-cash flow Psychology quarter quintiles ratio researchers RULE securities sell shares Slovic small-cap statistical stock market stock prices T-bills theory trading underperform vestors volatility Wall Street Journal yield York