Social investments are essential to provide a good living environment and they are also essential for economic development. Better roads must be built and more electricity must be generated in order to stimulate economic activity and to provide increased employment and increased income to the people. Economic studies help to appraise the relative urgency of the various needs of commerce and industry and to apportion available resources so as to ensure the fastest possible economic growth.

Improved utilisation of available resources can contribute as much to the well-being of population as the provision of new facilities. During its initial research the CMPO has, therefore, started a series of studies ranging from utilisation of available housing space to utilisation of the available supply of water and electricity.

Preliminary estimates for the districts of Calcutta, Howrah, Hooghly, 24 Parganas and Nadia, show that the five districts contributed between 55 and 60 percent of the income of the entire State as of 1958. Per capita annual income of the city of Calcutta was estimated at over Rs. 550 and in other four districts about Rs. 400. Between 1955

and 1958 the total income of the five districts increased by about 11 percent.

From the preliminary estimates, it can be concluded that Calcutta has substantial resources compared with India as a whole, Calcutta's per capita income is about 70 per

cent higer than the national average. Calcutta can afford, therefore, to undertake a correspondingly greater programme of social overhead investment. The urgency of such a programme is shown by the slow rate of income growth, which has barely kept pace with the increase in population. Unless vigorous steps for development are taken, Calcutta faces the possibility of economic stagnation.

To obtain a broad picture of future needs and resources, the CMPO has prepared a preliminary forecast of income growth in the State of West Bengal and in the Calcutta Metropolitan District for the years 1961 to

To project Calcutta's income growth and future requirments two alternate assumptions were made. Under the first assumption income growth will continue at the present rate of 3 percent per year; under the second assumption income growth will reach the Third Five Year Plan target of a cumula. tive rate of 6 percent per year.

To achieve a 6 percent rate of growth it would be necessary to limit the rise in consumption and increase the rate of investment atleast until a rate of growth of income slightly in excess of 6 percent is achieved. To achieve the 6 percent rate of growth, industry will have to expand at a rapid pace, and industrial space may have to increase by as much as 150 percent to accommodate new facilities. The growth of industrial activity may generate a 50 percent increase in the flow of goods to and from Calcutta. This added flow may involve an increase in transport expenditure of some 50 percent inside the city and 110 percent in the remaning areas of the District.

The growth of industrial and commercial activities will also require an expansion of activity by the Port of Calcutta. The increased number of workers with their rising income will require additional housing. The forecast shows that within the city of Calcutta needed housing expenditure is likely to rise by 40 percent, and in the remaining areas of the District by 105 percent.

The above macro-projections assume that there would be no increase in investment in the State from outside West Bengal. In view of the great possibilities of industrial development offered by the Durgapur Asansol complex, and of the development potential that will be generated by the establishment of a new deep sea port at Haldia, the chances of outside investments are likely to brighten. Hence the growth of income may well be higher than shown in the forecasts.

Commodities Flows And Input-Output Analyses

The future of Calcutta's industrial, commercial and banking activities depends in no small measure on the growth of industry in Durgapur, Asansol and Rourkela, on Assam's tea gardens and West Bengal's jute industry. To determine the exact nature of the interrelationship of Calcutta to its hinterland the CMPO has undertaken two major studies: an investigation of commodity flows and an analysis of inter-sector relations.

The commodity flow study, initiated at the University of Chicago and continued in Calcutta with the assistance of the Institute of Public Administration (IPA), New York., investigates the flow of goods and services from the city through the hinterland to the rest of India and to the rest of the world. The study is nearing completion; its preliminary findings have already contributed greatly to the planning process.

The most salient finding of the commodity flow study is that the Port of Calcutta depends upon and serves the entire hinterland, and that relatively few industries in Calcutta except jute are linked directly to the Port. Thus Calcutta's port is closer in character to Amsterdam, another of the world's great harbours that serves as regional shipping centre, than to Rotterdam which lives on harbour-oriented industries. The meaning of the finding is that the growth of the Port must be geared to the growth of eastern India's economic activities and export trade, lest the entire region suffer stagnation. The commodity flow study will also permit estimate of the transport, storage, wholesaling and retailing requirements for the

commodities moving through Calcutta. These findings, together with results of other surveys, will be utilised in the preparation of the comprehensive plan for the Metropolitan District.

The input-output study dealing 'with intersector relations was also undertaken with the assistance of the IPA. It relates to the requirements of Calcutta's industries to the products made elsewhere in India and also shows how the needs of the rest of India are satisfied by the commodities produced in Calcutta. Findings of the study, yet to be completed, will permit the relation of Calcutta's future development to the growth of the country as a whole and more specifically to the programmes laid out under the Five Year Plans.

Industrial Analyses & Policies

To make an adequate estimate of economic potential of the Calcutta Metropolitan District and to appraise the industrial and commercial requirements for space, water, power and transport, a number of detailed analyses of major branches of industry and commerce must be made. Some industries of major importance to the Calcutta Metropolitan District, such as the jute industry, have a relatively limited growth potential; while others, such as mechanical engineering, are likely to grow at a very rapid pace. The employment potential and the requirement for social overhead capital differ from industry to industry.

Industry is the most important source of employment and income in Calcutta Metropolitan District. Out of the 11.7 laks of workers employed in Calcutta, 2.8 laks work in industry, and of these, 1.7 laks in registered factories. In the District as a whole there are 9.6 laks of industrial workers, of whom 5.8 laks are in registered factories,

In the ten year period 1950-60, employment in jute in West Bengal decreased by 74,000 workers, while employment in other industries increased by 1,33,000. Thus in industries other than jute employment in West Bengal has grown by about 31 per cent per year, that is, at approximately the same rate as in India as a whole. Industrial employment in the city of Calcutta has not

been seriously affected by the decline in the jute industry; and employment in Calcutta shows more vigorous growth. Indeed, in the three-year period 1957 to 1960 industrial employment in the city of Calcutta grew by 7.54 per cent.

A detailed analysis of jindustrial employment and output trends in West Bengal is now in progress.

The growth of the Durgapor-Asansol complex generates, on the one hand, a demand on Calcutta's facilities including the Port of Calcutta, Calcutta's banking services and a variety of ancillary industries. On the other hand, the complex acts as a countermagnet for industry and for industrial labour. To appraise the future of the DurgapurAsansol complex, the I.P.A. in collaboration with the C. M. P. O. has undertaken a study of industrial development of the complex.

The rate of development of the Calcutta Metropolitan District is greatly influenced by the policy measures taken by the Government of India as well as State authorities. In order to forecast future developments and also in order to suggest changes in policies deterimental to growth, the CMPO has undertaken studies of the effects of Government regulations on the growth of the region.

Among such policies are, the policy of equalising steel prices and the railway freight structure for coal, irrespective of the distance from resource areas, and the policy of encouraging enterprises to seek licences for locating industries in relatively undeveloped areas in prefernce to industrialised areas.

Preliminary findings of the CMPO indicate that increased attention should be paid to economic factors, in locating and managing new industrial estates. An appraisal of Calcutta's future growth potential must take into account the opportunities open to diverse industries, the policies affecting growth, and the facilities that will be provided within the Metropolitan District.

In the ultimate analysis employment op portunities and income growth depend on the amount and composition of investment. To make an appraisal of future investment trends it is essential to have information on

past developments. In the absence of reliable published data the CMPO has undertaken a study of investments by limited liability companies operating in the State.

Requirements Of Services For Industry

To appraise future requirements for social overhead capital the CMPO has begun a survey of use of social overhead by industry in the District.

Electricity is the prime mover of modern industry. The CMPO has undertaken a study to appraise the future needs for power in the District as well as the plans for meeting anticipated demand. Available figures show that relative to its industrial importance Calcutta lags behing other important cities in the generation of power. Nearly 43 per cent of the total electricity produced in India is generated in the six cities; namely Calcutta, Bombay, Ahmedabad, Kanpur, Madras and Delhi. Of these Ahmedabad and Bombay generated 870 kw.h. and 774 kw.h. per capita respectively in 1958-59, while Calcutta produced 562 kw.h. per capita. Calcutta's power generating capacity lags behind demand, and there is a serious problem of power shortage in the Metropolitan District.

Aecording to a revised estimate by the WBSEB, simultaneous demand in Calcutta Metropolitan District was reckoned to be of the order of 692 MW by 1965-66. It was estimated by the CESC that their salable capacity by 1965-66 would be only 306 MW. Taking account into the supply from Damodar Valley Corporation, the total projected supply is expected to be 405 MW, leaving a gap of 287 MW against the anticipated demand of 692 MW. The gap is expected to be filled in bulk by supplies from Bandel and Durgapur

power stations.