discouragement in all the ports which she can control. Mr. Spencer states, that in a coasting voyage which he made from Odessa round the Krimea, he did not see a single British flag waving over the blue waters of the Euxine." "Indeed," he adds, "during the whole of my cruises on this sea, I felt as if transported to some unknown hemisphere: for to whatever part of the globe my stars had hitherto guided me, wherever there was a sea, there I found our beloved banner-there I was greeted with the rough but cordial welcome of our gallant tars." At Trebizond, he found the bazaars filled with merchandise, the creation of British industry, and the British flag unfurled over nearly every ship in the harbour; and he very properly recommends that a country of so much importance to our interests as Turkey, ought to be conciliated by all the means which we can bring into action for that purpose.

The works in progress at Sevastopol, which the stipendiary writers of Russia, stationed throughout Europe, have been instructed, from time to time, to underrate, as if they were mere harbour repairs, appear to indicate a settled design upon the part of the Czar to assume the complete dominion of the Euxine. No expense has been spared upon the fortifications, which Mr. Spencer, who went over them, states to be of the most formidable description. They are to be mounted by eight hundred guns. The admiralty, arsenal, and dock-yards, now constructing under the direction of Mr. Upton, an English engineer, are upon a gigantic scale.

"As a sufficient supply of water for the reservoirs could not be pro. cured nearer than at a distance of ten or twelve wersts, yet this obstacle has been surmounted by means of an aqueduct—a most colossal enterprise, and worthy of the best days of Roman grandeur: for we find it at one place tunnelled through a mountain of rock, then thrown across a valley, and, being at the same time tastefully designed, it forms a very pretty feature in the landscape. Indeed, we are every where reminded, at Sevastopol, of the active energy of the Russian government. The ship-builder's axe is constantly heard mingling its sounds with the stone-cutter's chisel. Besides thousands of masons and carpenters, there are thousands of soldiers employed as hodmen : nor are these the only striking evidences of Russian spirit and enterprise; for contiguous to the harbour we find an immense mountain of rock in the act of being removed, in order to afford space for the erection of the admiralty, arsenal, and other public buildings; an undertaking which could only be accomplished in such an empire as this, with its population of serfs and labouring soldiers."-vol. ii. pp. 52-3.

When to the construction of such a maritime station as Sevastopol, in the principal harbour of which the fleets of nations might

ride secure from any storm, we add the fact, as stated by Mr. Spencer, upon official authority, that Russia has in the Euxine a squadron consisting of fourteen line-of-battle ships, eight frigates of sixty guns, five corvettes, ten brigs, four schooners, nine cutters, and seven steamers, besides several transports (under the command of Admiral Lazareff), we must conclude that such preparations as these have some object in view beyond the mere police of that sea. Preponderance over Turkey is thus at once achieved. The power of the Sultan has been forced gradually to recede from the Krimea, to one port after another, along the coasts of Circassia, Mingrelia, and Gouriel, on one side, and from Odessa to Varna on the other. It is true that the efforts of the Czar to control the navigation of the Danube, to which all nations have an undoubted right under the treaty of Vienna, have failed. It is also to be taken into account that the Circassian ports, of which he has no more than military possession, are so many burthens, exhausting his resources-so precarious in possession that he cannot count upon them as Russian even for a week; that all his plans for investing Odessa and Redout-Kalé with commercial importance have been baffled by his own narrow-minded legislation; that Trebizond promises to be the great mart of the Euxine for Asiatic produce and importation, and that his seamen, whom his ice-bound dominions. prevent from serving usually more than six months in the year, are infinitely inferior to those of almost any other country. These are all decisive indications of inherent impotency which it will require ulterior measures to overcome. But those measures are obvious indeed they are proclaimed. sovereignty of the whole coast of the Euxine, and of the European provinces of Turkey, are essential to his supremacyand to that great object all his councils tend with an instinctive energy, which would seem to be irresistible.

The

It is, however, but an apparent exhibition of strength, which, resolved into its elements, ceases to be formidable, at least to England. We can, in the present position of our naval power, imagine no circumstances which could prevent our Mediterranean fleet from penetrating to the Black Sea, and compelling, if we could not "sink, burn, or destroy" them, every Russian boat in those waters to take refuge within the harbour of Sevastopol. It would be an affair of no difficulty to expel the Russians from every nook they possess in Gouriel, Mingrelia and Circassia, and to erect the latter into a barrier, beyond which the Moscovite never again could hope to plant his standard. We have the power to do all this-and more-and Russia feels it.

Our Cabinet is perfectly conversant with the details of this question, and prepared to act whenever the fit moment for action shall arrive. It becomes, therefore, unnecessary to assume that Quixotic air of defiance which certain enthusiasts are perpetually forcing upon the public mind of this country, with reference to Eastern affairs. The motives of those gentlemen, no doubt, are highly patriotic; but it would be as well that they should attend to the duties belonging to their own sphere, and leave matters of state policy to the care of those to whom the nation has entrusted them.*

In the meantime it should be borne in mind that there are no two nations in Europe whose best interests more depend upon the cultivation of mutual amity, than Russia and Great Britain. The pamphlet, whose title stands the last upon our list, furnishes, in a single paragraph, the best "security" into which either could enter for the preservation of "the peace." The whole document is well worthy of con

sideration.

"A late number of the Journal of St. Petersburgh contains a continuation of the series of articles, drawn from official sources on the European Trade of the Empire in the year 1835. Under the head of European Commerce,' the following informa

tion is communicated:

"The first place in the list is clearly due to Great Britain, whence goods were imported by Russia to the amount of 71,360,613 rubles; and to which country Russian goods were exported to the amount of 90,293,377 R. The chief articles of importation were spun cotton, indigo, dye-wood, salt, coffee, cotton and cotton goods. The exports consisted of tallow, linseed, hemp, wool, bristles, timber, raw hides, and iron. The value of the exports was greater than that of the imports by 13,475,319 R. "To Turkey (including Greece) were chiefly exported, wheat, iron, tallow, wool; and imported, wine, fruit, olive-oil, cotton, and raw silk. The exports were to the amount of 22,907,195 R.; the imports, of 13,584,334 R. Balance in favour of Russia, 9,382,861 R.

"From the Hans Towns (Hamburg, Lubeck, and Bremen), the chief imports were silk goods, silk, tobacco, coloured paper, and raw sugar, to the amount of 26,414,483 R. The exports (potash, copper, linseed, furs, lamp-oil, linen, &c.) were to the amount of 6,137,587 R. Balance in favour of the Hans Towns, 20,276,896 R.

"France. The chief imports from this country were wines; the chief exports to it, copper, hemp, linseed, wool, and bristles. The former were to the amount of 14,437,944 R. (wine forming half the value); the latter, of 8,820,921 R. (including copper, of the value of 3,600,000 R.) Balance in favour of France, 6,157,023 R.

"Austria.-The exports consisted of cattle, wheat, wool, furs, wax, Russian leather, raw hides, &c.; the imports, of scythes and sickles; silk; woollen, silk, and cotton goods. The former were to the value of 10,952,587 R.; the latter of 11,589,997 R. Balance in favour of Austria, 637,410 R.

"Prussia. The exports were timber, tallow, linseed, hemp, potash, &c.; the imports were silk, silk goods, fish and salt. The former were to the amount of 11,253,223 R.; the latter of 9,416,080 R. Balance in favour of Russia, 1,837,139 R. "Italy. The chief imports consisted of fruit, olive oil, &c., to the amount of 4,689,552 R. Wheat, Russian leather, &c., to the amount of 3,438,647 R., were the principal exports. Balance in favour of Italy, 1,250,905 R.

"Holland. The principal exports were linseed, hemp, timber, potash, copper, &c. to the amount of 10,267,502 R.; the chief imports were madder, tobacco, wine, raw sugar, woollen goods, jewels, &c., to the amount, altogether, of 7,156,312 R. Balance in favour of Russia, 3,111,190 R.

"Spain and Portugal.-The chief exports were flax and hemp; the chief imports

Mr. Spencer's work affords much valuable information upon the actual condition and resources of Circassia. We have been delighted with his descriptions of that beautiful country, and of the customs and manners of the interesting tribes by whom it is chiefly occupied. A considerable portion of both his volumes is dedicated to the purpose of rendering the Circassians more known to Europe, and of obtaining for them, particularly, the sympathies of England, in the struggle upon which they have embarked for the final establishment of their national independence. His efforts promise to be successful. There is a cordiality in his style, superior to all affectation, and a sincerity in his zeal, free from all taint of personal views, which will go far towards recommending his production and his purpose to every class of readers. His flight-for such it was-along the Danube necessarily prevented him from adding any thing of importance to the information previously supplied upon that subject.— Mr. McGregor's work on Austria and the Austrians is still more deficient upon the latter point, and this is the more to be regretted, as the author does not appear to have been so hurried in his voyage as either of his two predecessors. It must also be remarked, that from negligence, or from some other cause, perhaps indisposition, or absence from London during the printing of his volumes, they abound in faults of style, and even grammatical errors for which a school boy would be punished. But, on the other hand, we cannot too much applaud the spirit of truth, the total freedom from religious and political prejudices, in which the whole of his work is penned. It contains much valuable statistical information relative, particularly, to the Archduchy of Austria, and it gives a juster picture of the real happiness enjoyed by the inhabitants of that favoured district than any other book with which we are acquainted. Commercial men will find much useful matter in Mr. Triebner's report, and the "statistical account" mentioned at the head of this article.

wine and salt. The former were, altogether, to the amount of 3,248,626 R.; the latter of 4,612,626 R. Balance in favour of Spain and Portugal, 1,363,881 R.

"Sweden and Norway.-The chief exports were hemp, tallow, linseed, and linen; the chief article of importation was fish. The former were to the value of 3,534,419 R.; the latter of 4,196,622 R. Balance in favour of Sweden and Norway, 662,203 R.

"Denmark. The exports were linseed, flax, hemp, timber, &c. to the amount, altogether, of 5,454,886 R. The imports were of different foreign goods, to the value of 1,514,533 R. Balance in favour of Russia, 3,940,353 R.

ART. X.-Théorie Analytique des Probabilités. Par M. le Marquis de Laplace, &c. &c. 3ième édition. Paris. 1820.

N continuing our remarks upon the work of which the title is now before the reader's eye, we must remind him that we have not room to enter at length upon the subject. We have already discussed considerations of a practical character, tending to shew that upon several questions, in which recourse is actually had to the theory of probabilities, insufficiency of information produces effects prejudicial to the pecuniary interests of those concerned. This is indeed a strong point: we might urge any plan of prospective utility upon the English public, till we were tired, and without awakening the least attention. Nor would there be any reason to complain of such a result; for the present is an age of suggestions, and every person who can read and write has some scheme in hand, by which the community is to be advantaged: no wonder, then, that so few of the speculations in question have more than one investigator. But when we speak of the theory of probabilities, we bring forward a something upon which, right or wrong, many tens of millions of pounds sterling depend. The insurance offices, the friendly societies, all annuitants and all who hold life interests of any species—again, all who insure their goods from fire, or their ships from wreck-are visibly and immediately interested in the dissemination of correct principles upon probability in general. So much for that which actually is invested: now with regard to that which might be, let it be remembered, that whenever money is hazarded in commerce or manufactures, by those who would resign the possibility of more than average profit, if they might thereby be secured from the risk of disastrous loss, the desired arrangement is rendered impossible, by the want of knowledge how to apply the theory of probabilities, combined with the defect of methodized information upon the contingencies in question.

The name of the theory of probabilities is odious in the eyes of many, for, as all the world knows, it is the new phrase for the computation of chances, the instrument of gamblers, and, for a long time, of gamblers only; meaning, by that word, not the people who play with stocks and markets, but with cards, dice, and horses. Such an impression was the inevitable consequence of the course pursued by the earlier writers on the subject, who filled their books entirely with problems relative to games of chance. This was not so much a consequence of the nature of the subject, as of the state of mathematical knowledge at the