is no indication of change in the demographic conditions of the Bantu: the limiting circumstance is the available land. In the Transkei, population seems to have nearly grown up to the limit that present methods of agriculture impose, but that has led to extensive migration of natives to neighbouring districts, despite the fact that the land there is not, as in the Transkei, in native ownership. The Union as a whole could probably support several times its present native population. Mr. C. W. Cousins, late Director of Census, in his 1921 report, struck a note of warning by estimating the white and native populations half a century hence, on the basis of the present rate of growth; but though he probably over-estimated the native increase, the situation will certainly be even more alarming than he showed to the prospects of white supremacy, if the white birth-rate continues to fall and there is not an effective immigration policy.

In proceeding to describe the economic conditions of the country one must first note the sharp contrast that exists between town and country. The towns are very modern, and though a deplorable amount of poverty is found in them, the standard of living is high, prices are high and money abundant: the rural districts are old-fashioned, much of the farming even now is rather for subsistence than for the market, living is cheap, but very rough and primitive.

Farming is mostly in the hands of occupying owners, and though the area is often extensive, holdings are mostly small in the economic sense, i.e., the product of the farm is only enough to support a family. Capital, accordingly, is scarce and methods primitive, rough pasture being still the chief type. The rule of inheritance is that of equal division among sons, and consequently as population has grown, holdings have in many cases become too small for the only kind of farming that is customary. (It should be remembered that South Africa is a land of poor soil and insufficient rainfall.) The country people have not learnt to adapt themselves to new conditions, hence many of them have been driven off the land, and a class of " poor whites" has grown up. These, even in abject poverty, cling to the traditions of the landowner, and despise what they call "Kaffir work." They are being slowly forced from this attitude by necessity, but it is an influence seriously retarding adjustment to new conditions of life.

VOL 245. No. 499.

At present practically all wage-paid farm labour is nonEuropean. The native is paid a subsistence" wage, amounting perhaps, including the value of food supplied, to two shillings a day. It is as much as he is worth, as a rule, but as he is cheap and amenable to discipline every farmer prefers him, and even if the white labourer were more intelligent and capable, there would be no opening for him as there is in Canada and Australia. There is no " ladder " for the ambitious youth, so that while South Africa offers excellent chances to the settler with capital it is without attraction for the ordinary farm worker.

Mining is a very important industry in the Union. It is carried on by native labour with white supervisors of the artisan grade as well as those of higher rank. It is here that we find the contrast between the races at its acutest: natives are paid a wage in competition with farming-a little higher on account of the disagreeable nature of the work. White miners and artisans are paid at about the same rate as in the United States, or say eight times as much as natives. This high rate has been possible, so far, on account of the natural riches of the gold and diamond mines, and has been preserved by tenacity of custom and political influence. In the coal mines, which are of minor importance, things have by some chance been left to find their natural economic level, and the proportion of employment is 20 natives to one white man. The gold mines could probably be managed in the same way, but actually there are only 10 natives to one white. The mining companies dare not either reduce the proportion of whites or introduce miners from Europe, who would be glad to accept half the wages prevailing in the Transvaal. The better paid occupations are, by custom, reserved for whites, and last year Government forced through Parliament a law, popularly known as the Colour Bar Act, which crystallises this custom into law.

Manufacturing is now of importance comparable with agriculture or mining: it received a fillip during the war, when importation from Europe was difficult, and it has been maintained since by a highly protectionist policy. It is not so much swayed by tradition as farming, nor has it been so much interfered with by the State as the mining industry, so that wages and employment corrrespond more closely with the natural capacity of the workers. The figures are instructive. About

35 per cent of those engaged in manufacturing are of European race. Wages are as follows:

Manufacturing has provided employment for a certain number of poor whites, and since it introduces them to entirely novel surroundings it helps to set aside prejudice, and make them more useful citizens. In this way it is good, but the protectionist policy is as usual carried out at the expense of the unprotected industries, and by raising farm costs it tends to exaggerate the poor-white difficulty. There is no tendency for white labour to replace coloured: manufacturing seems to have nearly reached equilibrium as between the two races. Spasmodic attempts are made by public authorities to favour white employment, and it is possible that the Colour Bar Act will be utilised for the same purpose, but hitherto the effect of such interference with spontaneous economic conditions has been trifling.

The position, as a whole, shows the white races struggling, chiefly by political means, and so far with some success, to maintain economic privilege: while the natives, despite want of educational facilities, and in the face of many hindrances, are slowly rising in the scale of life.*

The foregoing recital of facts is put forward with the aim of helping to estimate the future relations of the white and black races in South Africa. This is the real problem of the country. Are the two destined to mix, and if not, on what terms are they to live together? It will help to clarify the argument if we begin by giving a list of the possibilities, without stopping to consider which is the most probable. They are as follows:

(a) Extinction of the native race. Of this there is not the

*The writer, quite recently, heard a South African seriously propose that the natives should be exterminated by military means! This from a man of exceptional ability, who had travelled all over the world! Of course his attitude must not be taken as in any way representative, but it may help to explain the insensitiveness to, or rather unconsciousness of, world opinion that prevails in South Africa.

slightest prospect. The Red Indians in America, the aborigines in Australia, have nearly died out; and in South Africa the pure bred Hottentots, as well as the more primitive Bushmen, have disappeared. The Bantu race, on the contrary, increases steadily in numbers, and shows adaptability to the conditions created by Western civilization. Not only is there a considerable natural increase within the boundaries of the Union of South Africa, but there is a vastly greater Bantu population in Central Africa from which reinforcements might come, and which it would be almost impossible to keep from infiltration across the long land frontier.

(b) Extinction of the white race, or at least limitation to a small governing class. Although this is conceivable it seems in the highest degree unlikely. South Africans are not mere settlers in an alien country: they feel themselves to be a nation, living in their own land, in a healthy and stimulating climate, where they have grown rapidly in numbers. They show good physique, enterprise, and, when driven to it, can do manual work as well as other races; the mere suggestion that the nation might die out would shock them, and meet with a violent resistance inspired by self-preservation. If such a If such a consummation did come about, it would be through continuous fall in birth rate, due to loss of economic opportunity. The present fall in the birth rate must not be regarded as leading to extinction : it is on the same lines as the movement in other countries of European race, and leads to equilibrium. There is no sign, in South Africa or elsewhere-even in France-of what has been termed race suicide; until some such indication does appear the possibility of extinction may be merely noted and left aside.

(c) Miscegenation. This would be the natural solution, if sentiment against it were not so strong. The white inhabitants of South Africa belong to the northern group among whom opposition to intermarriage is strongest, and seems to be strengthening rather than weakening. The nature of this antipathy is elusive, and difficult to analyze. There is often a clear feeling of repulsion to the neighbourhood of a negro: but it is hard to say how far this feeling is the product of tradition. It has often been remarked that white people do not mind the presence of natives as servants, though they would object most strongly

to their presence on terms of social equality. The argument against intermarriage is usually obscured by ignoring the influence of class the average cultivated man objects strenuously to his daughter marrying a navvy or coal miner, and if he objects to marriage with a negro it is partly on the same grounds, and only partly on grounds that are strictly racial. Whilst pure racial antipathy certainly does exist, it is exaggerated by economic hostility; the poorer Europeans dislike the natives because they fear their competition. In earlier days, both in South Africa and in the Southern States of North America, this fear was absent, for the Europeans were practically all well-to-do. Interbreeding, at least of white males and negro females, was then common enough, and has given rise to the half-castes of the Cape and of America.

At present there is very little miscegenation in South Africa; the existence of the Cape half-castes however is a bridge to make mixture more easy, and in so far as southern and eastern Europeans come to form part of the population, they will certainly not show the same antipathy to mixture as the Dutch and British do. The position of the coloured people is a matter on which statistical investigation is much needed. The indications of the census are ambiguous. Thus between 1904 and 1911 the percentage increase of the coloured appeared to be greater than that of either whites or blacks, from which one might readily draw the conclusion that the race was showing a normal increase among its own numbers and also being augmented from the two ends. This natural conclusion however is contradicted by the census of 1921, which registers the increase over 1911 as being smaller for coloured than for either white or black. One possible reason for this is the uncertainty of definition: many persons of mixed descent are nearly white, and may have been enumerated as such. Another reason lies in the heavy mortality from influenza in 1918: again, this may be an indication of inherent unhealthiness of the hybrid, or it may be the mere accident that they mostly live in the Western Province, where the epidemic was especially severe on whites as well as coloured. The whole question of the increase in the coloured race demands expert analysis, which is not forthcoming.

The Cape coloured people have suffered from the pernicious