Page images
PDF
EPUB

one another. It is unwarrantable to assume without definite and conclusive evidence that loans made to Canada by the United States increase the ability of Europe to make current payments in the United States.

Moreover, when examination is made of direct trade relations between Europe and the United States, the showing is less favorable to Europe. The commodity exports and imports between Europe and the United States, in the fiscal year ending June 30, 1922, were as follows:

U.S. Exports to Europe.
U. S. Imports from Europe.
Excess Exports.

$2,067,027,605

830,473,712 1,236,553,893

Europe's adverse balance with us is thus greater by $73,381,304 than is the adverse balance of the world as a whole with us. The same thing appears when the figures for gold and silver are examined. Instead of the 450 millions balance mentioned in Mr. Hoover's figures above, Europe has a balance of only 360 millions with the United States.

Viewing the relations between Europe and the United States alone during the fiscal year just passed, it appears that Europe had a deficit,' rather than a surplus of 750 millions, on current items. In any case, it is to be noted that even on Mr. Hoover's showing, such surpluses as the world as a whole may have,

1 It should be emphasized that the argument here is primarily a modification of Mr. Hoover's figures rather than an individual computation of my own. I have not made independent checking, for the fiscal year ending 1922, of such items as immigrants' remittances, tourists' expenditures, interest payments, earnings from shipping, and the like. Earlier estimates dealing with these items will be found in the Chase Economic Bulletin, Vol. I, No. 1.

grow primarily out of the borrowings in our markets and the shipment of gold. But from the standpoint of settling international indebtedness, new borrowing does not constitute payment. New borrowing involves merely the shifting of creditors. It will be a long time before one would feel justified in recommending that the general capital market in the United States should supply funds to the European governments with which to pay off their debts to our Government, or before private creditors should be asked to assume the Government's present burden.

In so far, moreover, as Europe's paying power in our markets comes from shipments of gold, it is a bad sign rather than a good sign. We have too much gold already, and Europe has too little. It is evidence of weakness rather than of strength that she is obliged to continue draining her inadequate gold reserves in order to meet obligations in this country. It is, moreover, conclusive evidence that Europe has no such surplus paying power in our markets as Mr. Hoover's figures would indicate. No, Europe is in no position to pay at the present time. Great Britain, by heroic efforts, is paying part of her interest, but the continent is really unable to undertake anything at present. We must not exact the pound of flesh. We must be considerate and forbearing. In order to collect any considerable amount of these debts, we must patiently and sympathetically explore with our debtors the whole situation, and cooperate with them in solving their difficult problems.

LIST OF PUBLICATIONS

Nos. 1-165 (April, 1907, to August, 1921). Including papers by Baron d'Estournelles de Constant, George Trumbull Ladd, Elihu Root, Barrett Wendell, Charles E. Jefferson, Seth Low, John Bassett Moore, William James, Andrew Carnegie, Pope Pius X, Heinrich Lammasch, Norman Angell, Charles W. Eliot, Sir Oliver Lodge, Lord Haldane, Alfred H. Fried, James Bryce, and others; also a series of official documents dealing with the European War, the League of Nations, the Peace Conference, and with several of the political problems resulting froin the War. A list of titles and authors will be sent on application. 166. Constitution of the Permanent Mandates Commission; Terms of the "C" Mandates; Franco-British Convention of December 23, 1920; Correspondence between Great Britain and the United States respecting Economic Rights in the Mandated Territories; The San Remo Oil Agreement. September, 1921.

1921.

167. Present Problems of the Commonwealth of British Nations: Conference of Prime Ministers and Representatives of the United Kingdom, the Dominions and India, held in June, July and August. October, 1921. 168. Relations between Great Britain and Ireland: Proposals of British Government and Correspondence between Mr. Lloyd George and Mr. de Valera. November, 1921. 169. Washington Conference on the Limitation of Armaments. December, 170. Treaties of Peace between the United States on the one hand and Germany, Austria and Hungary on the other. January, 1922. 171. Peace through Conferences: Address delivered by Mr. Lloyd George at Central Hall, Westminster, London, on January 21, 1922, and text of the resolution of the Supreme Council calling the Genoa Conference. February, 1922. 172. Washington Conference on the Limitation of Armament. Part II. Treaties and Resolutions. March, 1922.

173. Correspondence between Mr. Lloyd George and Sir James Craig on the Position of Ulster; Articles of Agreement establishing the Irish Free State; Irish Free State (Agreement) Bill. April, 1922. 174. The International Chamber of Commerce, by Frederick P. Keppel, Administrative Commissioner for the United States. May, 1922. 175. The Student and the Citizen, Phi Beta Kappa address at Columbia University, March 16, 1922, by James T. Shotwell. June, 1922. 176. The Portorose Conference, by James T. Shotwell; An Account of the Portorose Conference, by the American Observer, Colonel C. B. Smith; Protocols and Agreements concluded at the Portorose Conference, November, 1921; Agreement concerning Passports and Visas concluded at Graz, January 27, 1922. July, 1922.

177. Impressions of Berlin in 1922, by Professor Henri Lichtenberger. August, 1922.

178. Addresses delivered March 1 and 5, 1922, in connection with the Fifth Annual Meeting of the Cuban Society of International Law, Havana, by Cosme de la Torriente. September, 1922.

179. The Constitution of the Czecho-Slovak Republic, with introductions by Jirí Hoetzl and V. Joachim. October, 1922.

180. A Short History of the Question of Constantinople and the Straits, by James T. Shotwell. November, 1922.

181. The Allied Debt: The Balfour Note of August 1, 1922, and the French
Reply of September 3, 1922; The American Banker's Responsibility
Today, by Thomas W. Lamont; Reparations and International Debts,
by Reginald McKenna; The Repayment of European Debts to Our
Government, by Herbert Hoover; The Allied Debts, by Edwin R. A.
Seligman; The Interallied Debts as a Banking Problem, by B. M.
Anderson, Jr. December, 1922.
Special Bulletins: France, Liberator of Nations, by Charles Downer Hazen.
June, 1922.

America and England: Addresses by the Rt. Hon. Earl Balfour and
Chief Justice Taft at a dinner in London, June 19, 1922, given by
the Pilgrims. July, 1922.

Copies of the above, so far as they can be spared, will be sent to libraries and educational institutions for permanent preservation postpaid upon receipt of a request addressed to the Secretary of the American Association for International Conciliation.

A charge of five cents will be made for copies sent to individuals. Regular subscription rate twenty-five cents for one year, or one dollar for five years.

[blocks in formation]

SIR WILLIAM J. COLLINS, London, England
HELLMUT VON GERLACH, Berlin, Germany
EDOARDO GIRETTI, Bricherasio, Italy
CHRISTIAN L. LANGE, Geneva, Switzerland
T. MIYAOKA, Tokio, Japan

OTFRIED NIPPOLD, Saarlouis

« PreviousContinue »