are understood to be formidable, they alone cannot become a menace to Japan's safety. As for Britain, she is well protected by her bases at Singapore and at Hongkong. The maintenance of the existing status of the fortifications and naval bases enumerated in Article 19 of the Naval Treaty is calculated to remove a cause of mutual fear and suspicion among the powers. Let us hope that these Pacific fortifications will prove to be the "fortifications for peace" and not for war. Rumor has it that Article 19, as it now stands, was drafted by Baron Shidehara. It was a happy solution of the knotty problem, and was readily accepted by Mr. Hughes and Mr. Balfour. PART II THE PACIFIC TREATY CHAPTER VII THE PARTING OF THE WAYS Washington, November 9, 1921: On the eve of the Conference our thoughts naturally turn to the AngloJapanese alliance, for the alliance is bound to be discussed and disposed of at this international gathering. There is no doubt that England and Japan stand at the parting of the ways. For twenty years they have travelled hand in hand on the road of diplomacy. Will they now bid goodbye to each other without remorse or regret? To forecast the future of the alliance, it is essential to know something of its past. The first alliance, concluded on January 30, 1902, conferred upon Japan little material benefit. It was not an offensive or defensive alliance. It did not obligate England to help Japan in the event of war between Japan and Russia, although the alliance was obviously directed against the northern colossus. As far as Japan was concerned, the value of the alliance was moral rather than material. Unquestionably it elevated Japan's prestige among the nations, for it was the first recognition of the fact that an Asiatic nation was capable of rendering assistance to a foremost Power of the West. By it Japan was definitely recognized as an important factor in world politics. No longer was her voice to be ignored in the disposition of Far Eastern questions. For Great Britain the advantage was more substantial. As Mr. Alfred Stead frankly admits, "British diplomacy assumed a new importance at Peking when backed by Japan, and, amongst other results, the Tibetan expedition was rendered possible. Since the beginning of the Russo-Japanese War, and the consequent revelation of Japan's power, the advantages to British diplomacy in Europe have been very considerable. In fact, British foreign policy all over the world has been influenced and strengthened by the alliance. The destruction of the Baltic Fleet enabled four British battleships to be sent home to play a very important part in the diplomatic crisis in Europe." The first alliance was renewed on August 12, 1905, when Japan was still locked in deadly combat with Russia. This second pact was no longer a shadowy alliance, but a defensive and offensive alliance in the real sense of the term. By it Britain definitely cast her lot with Japan. The second treaty of alliance was made public when the outcome of the Peace Conference at Portsmouth was quivering in the balance. Unfortunately for Japan, the treaty contained an article forestalling its application to the war in which Japan was then engaged. But for that provision the alliance might have been a great aid to Japan in obtaining more favorable terms of peace from Russia. England's main object in concluding the second alliance was to prepare against the rising tide of German influence which had begun to manifest itself both in Europe and in the Far East. On the other hand, Japan regarded it as a safeguard against Russian revenge. |